Bitcoin’s August curse is back in focus as analyst Ali Martinez warns of another potentially painful month. On August 1, Martinez highlighted Bitcoin’s four-year losing streak, citing average August declines near 10%. His warning comes as weak demand, negative Coinbase Premium readings, and Bitcoin ETF outflows pressure market sentiment.
Martinez cited monthly losses of 13.88% in 2022, 11.29% in 2023, 8.60% in 2024, and 6.49% in 2025. The figures show August weakness across different market conditions, although history does not guarantee another decline.
Bitcoin’s longer record also paints a mixed picture rather than proving a fixed seasonal curse. Since 2013, Bitcoin has finished August lower nine times across thirteen years, according to historical market data. The median return stood near -7.49%, while the average remained positive after unusually strong gains, including 65.32% in 2017.
The difference between median and average matters for traders watching Bitcoin’s August performance closely this year. A few large rallies can lift the average, even when most August periods finish lower overall. The historical record therefore signals volatility and risk, rather than a guaranteed monthly collapse.
Current market conditions add another layer to Martinez’s warning as August trading begins worldwide. Apparent Bitcoin demand has remained negative for more than 200 consecutive days, while spot ETF outflows continue. The Coinbase Premium Index has also remained below zero for several weeks.
Lower summer liquidity could amplify market reactions when macroeconomic headlines or sudden selling hit crypto markets. Peter Schiff also predicted a ‘much bigger selloff in Bitcoin,’ adding another bearish view to current market concerns.
A regulatory catalyst, Federal Reserve decision, or renewed ETF buying could challenge August’s historical weakness. For now, Bitcoin’s seasonal record favors caution, while current demand signals keep downside risks in focus. Still, traders may watch ETF flows and institutional demand for signs of recovery.
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