Bitcoin could be entering a new market cycle as Galaxy Research argues that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June 2026. After trading between USD 80,000 and USD 89,000 over the past month, Bitcoin may be entering an accumulation phase, analysts suggest.
Galaxy Research Identifies Bitcoin’s Accumulation Phase
According to Galaxy Research, Bitcoin’s bear market concluded in June, supported by improving technical indicators, market positioning, fundamentals and investor sentiment.
The firm reported that Bitcoin was trading near USD 81,300 on October 22, approximately 3% below the previous session’s closing level of USD 84,000.
Despite this weakness, BTC remained approximately 39% above its June 30 low, suggesting a recovery from earlier market pressure.
However, Bitcoin was still around 35% below its October 2025 record. Reclaiming that peak would require an estimated 53% increase from the October 22 level.
Galaxy’s analysis suggests investors may be gradually accumulating Bitcoin while prices consolidate, potentially establishing conditions for another upward movement.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: USD 81,000 and USD 125,000
Market participants are monitoring technical resistance levels for confirmation of renewed momentum. According to analyst Ted Pillows, a sustained daily move above USD 81,000 could strengthen Bitcoin’s short-term recovery prospects.
Meanwhile, Galaxy’s broader market outlook suggests Bitcoin could eventually revisit approximately USD 125,000, although no specific timeline or guaranteed price outcome was provided.
The comparison with traditional markets remains notable. While the S&P 500 traded near its October record, Bitcoin continued struggling to recover previous highs.
US Midterm Elections Present Additional Risks
Historical election patterns introduce uncertainty into Bitcoin’s recovery outlook. According to cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, BTC experienced double-digit percentage declines during the 2014, 2018 and 2022 US midterm election periods. Although past performance cannot reliably predict future returns, the historical declines point to potential volatility around midterm elections.
Final Thoughts
Galaxy Research’s assessment indicates Bitcoin may have transitioned from declining prices into accumulation. However, technical resistance, investor positioning and election-related uncertainty could influence subsequent movements.
A sustained recovery toward USD 125,000 remains possible, but investors should distinguish improving market conditions from confirmation of another bullish cycle.
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